Each week, Bills beat reporter Shawn Krest breaks down the tape on Buffalo for www.footballoutsiders.com, the publishers of the Football Prospectus series of books.  Between the Numbers will look at various statistical breakdowns of the team. 

Against the Jets, the Bills offense had an eye-popping day reminiscent of the early Drew Bledsoe era.  What was different last Sunday?  Protection!

As we reported in Week One’s HBtheN, head coach Dick Jauron and offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild designed game plans that provided quarterback J.P. Losman with more weapons instead of more protection.  With quick feet, Losman can elude the first rusher and hopefully find one of the extra guys running routes down field. 

Against the Jets, Jauron and Fairchild were far more conservative than in previous weeks, leaving Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed on the bench in favor of spare blockers. 

Don’t blame the Jets for this shift in focus.  Jauron wasn’t adding protection to contend with the New York rush.  The Jets blitzed less than any Bills opponent this season, and sent three or fewer rushers more often.  The following chart shows the percentage of pass plays that each Bills opponent blitzed or backed off. 

            # of Rushers

Team  2 or 3    5+  

N.E.       4%     36%              

Miami     0%     58%

Jets        13%    23%

In case you’re interested, here are the numbers for the Bills defense over the first three games. 

            # of Rushers

Team  2 or 3    5+  

Bills        0%     23%              

Don’t blame Willis McGahee either.  While the Buffalo RB had a career day, the offense wasn’t slanted heavily toward the run.  In fact, quite the opposite.  Buffalo passed more often against the Jets than any other team this year

   Bills offense,  % of plays

Week     pass    run  

1            53%   47%              

2            39%   61%

3            57%   43%

The Bills unveiled a three tight end, one receiver, one back offensive set.  In the first two games, the Bills ran 107 offensive plays, showing this formation just once—a four-yard pass to Josh Reed against Miami.  Against the Jets, the Bills lined up this way seven times, all runs. 

The Bills also ran several two tight end, two back sets, meaning that they lined up with just one receiver on the field 19% of the time, far exceeding the 8% of the first two weeks. 

Surprisingly, the Bills actually lined up four wide more often against the Jets.  Nearly a quarter of their offensive plays were run four-wide, their highest percentage of the season.  The first two games featured that set just 18% of the time. 

The all-or-nothing approach to the receivers against  the Jets was a significant divergence from the team’s established offense.  Against Miami and New England, the Bills had two or three receivers three quarters of the time.  That figure dropped by nearly a third against the Jets.

Just as the Bills ran nearly every time they sent in just one receiver, when the lined up four-wide against the Jets they passed 17 of 19 plays. 

The standard sets are much more evenly divided between run and pass.  Three receiver sets result in passes 58% of the time, and the Bills pass out of an I formation more than a third of the time. 

Despite the shift in offensive focus, the performance remains the same.  The offense does best when Losman is presented with options in pass routes.  The three tight end set is averaging just 2 yards per play.  Using the fullback and tight end to support blocking on one side (the “strong I” formation) averages just 1.4 yards. 

Other offensive sets that are performing below average on a yards-per-play basis are the standard I formation and the two tight end sets. 

Meanwhile, the Bills average 6.8 yards per play in four-wide, 5.9 yards with a third receiver in the slot, 5.2 yards with three receivers all on one side (“trips left” and “trips right”) and 5.1 yards with split backs (where one or both backs typically go out on short routes). 

Bottom line:  Record setting days aside, the Bills offense is better served with Roscoe Parrish and Josh Reed on the field in place of Ryan Neufeld and Damion Shelton. 

Missed Tackle Report: 

The Bills missed 25 tackles for 188 yards.  Donte Whitner (4 for 27) and London Fletcher (4 for 17) led the team, though Ko Simpson’s two misses were for a team-leading 31 yards. 

Bills defenders were dragged 33 times for a total of 75 yards. Angelo Crowell was dragged seven times for 15 yards to pace the team. 

The Bills had fifteen “stop in tracks” tackles, led by rookie Keith Ellison’s three.