Each week, Bills beat reporter Shawn Krest breaks down the tape on Buffalo for www.footballoutsiders.com, the publishers of the Football Prospectus series of books. Between the Numbers will look at various statistical breakdowns of the team.
Minnesota
learned the hard way: Don’t blitz the kid. The Vikings sent five or more rushers more than half the time (19 of 37 pass plays) on Sunday and learned the lesson the hard way.
Thus far in his young career, Losman has found it easier to avoid onrushing blitzers than to solve double and triple coverage. His quarterback rating against the blitz is 103.5. When defenses back off, his rating falls to 83.9.
As the number of onrushing defenders increases, so does Losman’s
# of rushers Losman’s QB Rating
2 or 3 88.4
4 76.5
5 94.4
6+ 130.9
Losman hasn’t been dumping off short passes against the blitz, either. Against the blitz, 61% of Losman’s 411 yards passing have been through the air, with 39% run after catch.
When only four men rush, Losman’s pre/post catch yardage breakdown is 59%-41%. When only two or three come in, the ratio is 58%-42%.
On big plays, Losman still relies on his receivers to add yardage. In the first quarter of the season, he has had 11 pass plays of 20 yards or more. Losman’s arm has been responsible for 56% of the yardage, with 44% being added after the catch.
Surprisingly, considering how well Losman has performed with extra receivers on the field (as we saw last week), eight of the eleven big plays have had extra blockers stay in. Overall this season, Losman has a 104.4 rating with six blockers, though it falls off sharply if more than six stay in.
The most popular big-play set is three receivers with one in the left slot. The Bills used this for four of the eleven twenty yarders. The Bills were in the I-formation with 2 receivers for three plays. At two big plays each were three receivers slot right, four receivers, and two tight end. (Note: In addition to Losman’s eleven 20+ yard completions, the Bills had a 50-yard interference penalty against Miami and a 32-yard McGahee run against the Jets)
While the Bills lined up left handed for their big plays most of the time, the plays actually went right more often. Six of Losman’s passes went to the right side (three to the sideline and three between the numbers and hash marks). Only four went left (2 sideline, 2 number to hash).
Adding more fuel to the more-receivers-is-better argument, only three big plays saw the fullback on the field and only three saw an extra tight end.
