JP Losman’s career day against Houston will likely be called a turning point in the young quarterback’s development. In fact, early analysis of the game shows that it was just more of the same.
Losman came out blazing, going 8 for 8 in the first quarter with two 83 yard touchdowns to Lee Evans. In the middle two quarters, he cooled off, allowing Houston back into the game, culminated by an interception that was returned for a touchdown giving the Texans the lead.
In the fourth quarter, Losman led the Bills back, clinching the game with a laser-beam touchdown thrown into tight coverage with nine seconds left.
But that’s been Losman’s M.O. for the year. Here is Losman’s quarterback rating, by quarter for the game, compared with the same breakdown for the first nine games of the season
Quarter Week 10 Weeks 1 thru 9
1 158.3 90.6
2 47.9 56.5
3 43.2 69.9
4 119.9 107.2
With the game on the line, Losman has been at his best. For the year, his rating is 113.7 in the fourth quarter of close games (less than seven points’ difference).
While a good start and end to the game are both crucial, the soft middle around halftime is cause for concern. Still, it’s an improvement over last year, where Losman did well on the early scripted plays, then tailed off.
Quarter 2005
1 89.0
2 76.7
3 46.3
4 50.7
At the end of close games, Losman’s rating was just 53.7 last year.
The 2006 season has been a macrocosm of Losman’s quarter by quarter performance. He was strong early in the season, then tailed off in the middle before the Houston rebirth. What happened in the season’s second month, when the multitudes started calling for his job? It wasn’t a regression, but the meat of the Bills schedule.
Quite simply, Losman has done well against fair to middling pass defenses and had his worst games against the three best pass defenses. Through week nine, Chicago, Indianapolis and FUCK YOU Miami are ranked one, two, and four respectively against the pass. Losman averaged just 94 yards passing and a 71.0 ranking against those three teams.
The next best defense Losman has faced was ranked ninteenth. Against the seven teams ranked in the league’s lower half against the pass, Losman has averaged 228 yards and a 94.5 rating. Here’s the bad news: With a rematch against the sucky Dolphins and games against Baltimore, San Diego and shitty Jacksonville remaining, four of Losman’s final six games are against teams ranked in the top 15
